So What's a Black Swan?

The new film by Darren Aronofsky starring Natalie Portman, "Black Swan", looks disturbing, doesn't it?

But what is "black swan theory"? Didn't know that was a project management term, didja?

In project management, a black swan is a high impact, hard-to-predict risk event that can have a devastating effect on a project. The only way to combat this kind of event is to have a contingency plan in place. An example in California would be: Earthquake. The contingency plan for an earthquake is to have an emergency earthquake kit at the ready, list of names and numbers in case your cell phone dies, and an action plan in mind; for at home, in your car, or at the office.

At the very least, it's knowing what to do in case of an emergency. Or, not doing what BP did, at any point in time during their projects. Their continued efforts to remedy bad decisions are better exhibited in those "Gulf Relief" commercials. As most project managers worth their salt know, DRIFT, or Do it Right the First Time.

Whereas to Darren Aronofsky, a "black swan" is when a ballerina goes batsh-t. Unsettling interpretation.